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Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region’s current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future. 

The Liangzhu culture in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was among the world’s most advanced Neolithic cultures. Archeological evidence suggests that the Liangzhu ancient city was abandoned, and the culture collapsed at ~4300 years ago. Here, we present speleothem records from southeastern China in conjunction with other paleoclimatic and archeological data to show that the Liangzhu culture collapsed within a short and anomalously wet period between 4345 ± 32 and 4324 ± 30 years ago, supporting the hypothesis that the city was abandoned after large-scale flooding and inundation. We further show that the demise of Neolithic cultures in the YRD occurred within an extended period of aridity that started at ~4000 ± 45 years ago. We suggest that the major hydroclimatic changes between 4300 and 3000 years ago may have resulted from an increasing frequency of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the context of weakened Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. 

Madagascar and the Mascarene Islands of Mauritius and Rodrigues underwent catastrophic ecological and landscape transformations, which virtually eliminated their entire endemic vertebrate megafauna during the past millennium. These ecosystem changes have been alternately attributed to either human activities, climate change, or both, but parsing their relative importance, particularly in the case of Madagascar, has proven difficult. Here, we present a multimillennial (approximately the past 8000 years) reconstruction of the southwest Indian Ocean hydroclimate variability using speleothems from the island of Rodrigues, located ∼1600 km east of Madagascar. The record shows a recurring pattern of hydroclimate variability characterized by submillennial-scale drying trends, which were punctuated by decadal-to-multidecadal megadroughts, including during the late Holocene. Our data imply that the megafauna of the Mascarenes and Madagascar were resilient, enduring repeated past episodes of severe climate stress, but collapsed when a major increase in human activity occurred in the context of a prominent drying trend. 

Northern Iraq was the political and economic center of the Neo-Assyrian Empire (c. 912 to 609 BCE)—the largest and most powerful empire of its time. After more than two centuries of regional dominance, the Neo-Assyrian state plummeted from its zenith (c. 670 BCE) to complete political collapse (c. 615 to 609 BCE). Earlier explanations for the Assyrian collapse focused on the roles of internal politico-economic conflicts, territorial overextension, and military defeat. Here, we present a high-resolution and precisely dated speleothem record of climate change from the Kuna Ba cave in northern Iraq, which suggests that the empire’s rise occurred during a two-centuries-long interval of anomalously wet climate in the context of the past 4000 years, while megadroughts during the early-mid seventh century BCE, as severe as recent droughts in the region but lasting for decades, triggered a decline in Assyria’s agrarian productivity and thus contributed to its eventual political and economic collapse. 

The Younger Dryas (YD), arguably the most widely studied millennial-scale extreme climate event, was characterized by diverse hydroclimate shifts globally and severe cooling at high northern latitudes that abruptly punctuated the warming trend from the last glacial to the present interglacial. To date, a precise understanding of its trigger, propagation, and termination remains elusive. Here, we present speleothem oxygen-isotope data that, in concert with other proxy records, allow us to quantify the timing of the YD onset and termination at an unprecedented subcentennial temporal precision across the North Atlantic, Asian Monsoon-Westerlies, and South American Monsoon regions. Our analysis suggests that the onsets of YD in the North Atlantic (12,870 ± 30 B.P.) and the Asian Monsoon-Westerlies region are essentially synchronous within a few decades and lead the onset in Antarctica, implying a north-to-south climate signal propagation via both atmospheric (decadal-time scale) and oceanic (centennial-time scale) processes, similar to the Dansgaard–Oeschger events during the last glacial period. In contrast, the YD termination may have started first in Antarctica at ∼11,900 B.P., or perhaps even earlier in the western tropical Pacific, followed by the North Atlantic between ∼11,700 ± 40 and 11,610 ± 40 B.P. These observations suggest that the initial YD termination might have originated in the Southern Hemisphere and/or the tropical Pacific, indicating a Southern Hemisphere/tropics to North Atlantic–Asian Monsoon-Westerlies directionality of climatic recovery. 

Abstract. Although the collapses of several Neolithic cultures in China areconsidered to have been associated with abrupt climate change during the4.2kaBP event (4.2–3.9kaBP), the timing and nature of this event andthe spatial distribution of precipitation between northern and southern Chinaare still controversial. The hydroclimate of this event insoutheastern China is still poorly known, except for a few published recordsfrom the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In this study, a high-resolutionrecord of monsoon precipitation between 5.3 and 3.57kaBP based on astalagmite from Shennong Cave, Jiangxi Province, southeast China, ispresented. Coherent variations in δ¹⁸O and δ¹³Creveal that the climate in this part of China was dominantly wet between 5.3and 4.5kaBP and mostly dry between 4.5 and 3.57kaBP, interrupted by awet interval (4.2–3.9kaBP). A comparison with other records frommonsoonal China suggests that summer monsoon precipitation decreased innorthern China but increased in southern China during the 4.2kaBP event.We propose that the weakened East Asian summer monsoon controlled by thereduced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation resulted in thiscontrasting distribution of monsoon precipitation between northern andsouthern China. During the 4.2kaBP event the rain belt remained longer atits southern position, giving rise to a pronounced humidity gradient betweennorthern and southern China.

 

Abstract. A large array of proxy recordssuggests that the “4.2ka event” marks an approximately300-year long period (∼3.9 to 4.2ka) ofmajor climate change across the globe. However, the climatic manifestation ofthis event, including its onset, duration, and termination, remains lessclear in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) domain. Here, we present new oxygenisotope (δ¹⁸O) data from a pair of speleothems (ML.1 and ML.2)from Mawmluh Cave, Meghalaya, India, that provide a high-resolution record ofISM variability during a period (∼3.78 and 4.44ka) that fullyencompasses the 4.2ka event. The sub-annually to annually resolved ML.1δ¹⁸O record is constrained by 18 ²³⁰Th dates with anaverage dating error of ±13 years (2σ) and a resolution of ∼40 years, which allows us to characterize the ISM variability withunprecedented detail. The inferred pattern of ISM variability during theperiod contemporaneous with the 4.2ka event shares broad similarities andkey differences with the previous reconstructions of ISM from the MawmluhCave and other proxy records from the region. Our data suggest that the ISMintensity, in the context of the length of our record, abruptly decreased at∼4.0ka ($\sim \pm \mathrm{13}$ years), marking the onset of a multi-centennialperiod of relatively reduced ISM, which was punctuated by at least twomulti-decadal droughts between ∼3.9 and 4.0ka. The latter stands outin contrast with some previous proxy reconstructions of the ISM, in which the4.2ka event has been depicted as a singular multi-centennial drought.